The Road to Brexit: A Horizon-Scanning Webinar

27 February 2019 | Blog Post

Trevor Charsley of AFEX and Manvir Basi of Russell Group will debate the potential impacts of a deal/no deal scenario, analysing international currency impact along with the connected geopolitical and economic risks. 

They will also inject a healthy dose of optimism that the UK can use this “great schism” to steer UK business and markets into a bright and profitable future as EU growth stalls.

The AFEX view is that there are four roads to Brexit. Their probabilities are:

  1. No deal Brexit and UK leaves EU March 29th to trade on WTO rules - 20%

  2. Deal agreed and UK leaves EU March 29th into a transition phase - 25%

  3. No deal Brexit “taken off the table” deal agreed and the UK leaves the EU later 
       in 2019 into a transition phase - 35%

  4. Referendum #2 and UK stays in the EU - 20%

Meanwhile, on 12 February UK PM May announced that she needed time for more talks with the EU, promising an update to Parliament by 26 February and a vote by 27 February. 

Whatever the outcome, the geopolitical stakes have rarely been so high—or the implications so broad! 

Register here for the Webinar

Further Reading Suggestions

Understanding Currency Exposure in a Connected World

The Opportunities of Brexit

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