Despite the increasing uncertainty with regards to the financial hit to industries, Russell Group have modelled the exposure for companies and countries. In the first of these articles, we take a look at the impact on shipping.
Geopolitical tensions in Hormuz could impact Global Trade
03 June 2019 | Blog Post
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could wipe $10 billion per week from global trade according to analysis by Russell Group.
Saudi Arabia would be the most affected, as the country has $3.5 billion of weekly trade across the Hormuz, with $2billion moving in and out of its main port, Ras Tanura.
Also affected on a weekly basis, are the United Arab Emirates ($3.3bn), Iraq ($1bn), Iran ($844m), Qatar ($763m), Kuwait ($706m) and Oman ($421m).
"The connected risk for insurers will be the effect on supply chains, which means credit risk, business disruption and defaults," said Suki Basi in an exclusive interview with Lloyd’s List.
This analysis comes at a time when the US and Iran tensions are escalating with the US deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the region. Similarly, as President Trump arrives in the UK for a state visit, many Western allies are questioning the administration’s approach to Iran.
Yet, as Suki Basi notes, the closure of Hormuz would impact the Asian economies rather than the Western ones.
According to Russell analysis, Saudi exports to Asia economies such as China ($31bn), Japan ($28bn), India ($21bn) and South Korea ($19bn), far outweigh the US ($19bn).
To read Suki Basi’s interview with Lloyd’s List click here.
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