How the Iran War is disrupting global entertainment events

Russell hosted a webinar examining how the Iran War is impacting major entertainment events including the FIFA World Cup. 

What follows is a round-up of some of the key discussion points from that session. 

The Iran War is a continuation of previous shocks 

In the webinar, we asked underwriters and risk managers if geopolitical volatility is playing a part in their risk assessment, and they replied that it is indeed a major consideration. 

Insurers and corporates need to consider the direct and indirect impacts of geopolitical threats.  The latter is sometimes harder to unearth, let alone quantify, but events over the last 6 years, such as supply chaindisruptions from COVID-19 Pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and tariffs have demonstrated how these shocks can impact businesses. 

The Iran oil crisis has all sorts of direct impacts on underwriting portfolios. A steady supply of oil is essential to the smooth running of events and activities undertaken by the global entertainment industry, so the outcomes of this crisis are more profound as no alternative fuel can be provided.  

Kerosene Crisis 

The Iran oil crisis has all sorts of direct impacts on underwriting portfolios. A steady supply of oil is essential to the smooth running of events and activities undertaken by the global entertainment industry, so the outcomes of this crisis are more profound as no alternative fuel can be provided. 

Oil can have many uses but is often not particularly useful when it first comes out of the ground. It must be processed to break down and become lighter effectively for use in combustion engines, food products and more. However, one use case for this oil requires additional treatment, and this is kerosine or aviation fuel, which has much the same composition as diesel but it’s freezing must be lowered so that it remains liquid in temperatures below minus 40, such as are experienced during air travel. 

Most of the infrastructure for this process lies along the shorelines of Iran, close to the oil extraction sites. These sites have been targeted as a key military objective to destabilise Iran’s economy but in turn has weakened many others too, and perhaps more concerningly, has increased dependence on other oil producing states such as Russia, and likely prolonged the impacts of this war, which will become increasingly global as the impacts continue.   

Entertainment Cutbacks 

Consumers are feeling the pinch across the globe, and they also can’t help but see the news on all forms of media, which is inhibiting their spending – in the short term at least. Consequently, nearly 4 in 10 Americans are cutting entertainment spending, 43% are going to the movies less, 39% are reducing live events attendance, and 46% are cancelling streaming subscriptions. 

It is no surprise that more people are tightening their belts in response to current global volatility – it is a rational response to bad news, which has seen fuel costs rise to 25% of operating costs globally in 2025-26, while European jet fuel prices rose from $80 per barrel to $180 per barrel in April 2026. Many airlines are introducing surcharges for long-haul flights and flight numbers have been cut to reduce costs. 

Fifa World Cup Heightened Threat 

The first match of the 2026 Fifa World Cup has been played against a backdrop of a heightened threat environment (terrorism, protests, geopolitical tensions) and uncertainty around Iran’s attendance to compete.Higher flight costs may mean less fan attendance and hotels have reported less bookings than previous forecast.  

In another poll we conducted, there was a consensus that the negative consequences of the war seem likely to persist for a further 6 months even if the war were resolved tomorrow. The outlook for 2027 is that 2026 is not a “one-off” event, but just another year of disruption. Disruption and volatility are the new normal. 

Outlook for 2026/27

Looking ahead to 2026/27, Contingency underwriters should be factoring this disruption into their portfolio risk management plans. The Iran War is another disruptive event in a decade of disruptive events; rising energy costs have created ‘cost of living pressures’ that are hitting consumers. Events such as FIFA World Cup 2026 are taking place under a cloud of uncertainty, so there is a real demand for tools and intelligence that provide clarity because we can expect more of the same next year.