All the major airlines, underwriters and insurance brokers in the specialty risk market are on high alert now that Europe reportedly has just six weeks’ worth of jet fuel remaining due to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
With major airlines grounding flights, there are fears that more prolonged geopolitical uncertainty will lead to even more cancellations if oil supplies continue to be restricted by the Iran war.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that is “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced”.
Russell Specialty Risk Intelligence Generates the Numbers
Asian nations such as Japan, India and China depend heavily on Middle Eastern energy supplies, are most at risk, as Russell outlined in a recent specialty risk intelligence briefing.
Figures generated by Russell, based on estimated trade data from Gulf nations in March 2026 indicated that India ($5 billion), China ($5 billion) and Japan ($3 billion) would be the countries impacted by interrupted flows of commodities,
All data was based on estimated trade from Gulf nations in March 2026.
Multi-class ripple effect of the war on underwriting portfolios
This data analysis shows how the ripple effects of the war can spread from the marine market to the aviation sector in a matter of days.
European airlines ranging from Swedish flag carrier SAS in Europe, KLM, Lufthansa and Norse Atlantic Airways have announced cancellations in April. Lufthansa also announced it had cancelled 20,000 flights between May and October to try and save fuel, according to DW.
United Airlines announced cancellations in the second and third quarters of 2026.
In the Far East, South Korean airline, Hong Kong airline Cathay Pacific and Vietnam Airlines all have plans to cancel flights. Air New Zealand also said it expected to be impacted.
Quantifying the global threat scenario impact
Quantifying the global threat scenario impact on the aviation portfolio is essential in an environment in which thousands of flights are likely to be cancelled this month.
Russell’s Head of Communications & External Affairs Chris Don said: “Our clients in the aviation industry increasingly depend on precision forecasting and operational foresight to help them quantify and price traditional and interconnected aviation risk exposure. There are continency plans at Government and EU level, however, to reduce threats airlines and consumers. It has been reported that the European Commission is set to announce energy and transport measures for the collective pooling of jet fuel stocks and equitable distribution of existing supplies.
“I recently attended the RIMS conference held by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), a trade body for the airline industry, when it gave an early warning on the weakening of Europe’s jet fuel supply resilience. Bodies such as IATA help to bring together policy makers, the airlines, manufacturers and specialty risk intelligence partners such as Russell to collaborate.
“We believe that true clarity requires both human and advanced data intelligence – working together to create valuable insights that drive smarter, faster, and more profitable decisions. This happens only when we work in genuine partnership.”