The hype around the possibility of a ‘Super El Nino’ that is currently developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean may not materialise this year, due to a misreading of trends in weather patterns.
In addition, the ‘Super El Nino’, touted as being the strongest on record, has led many to believe that this season there will be quieter hurricanes. In this article today, I challenge whether a ‘Super El Nino’ will occur, and subsequently, why it might not be a quiet hurricane season.
Odds Stacked Against Super El Nino
So why might the Super El Nino not materialise? Firstly, we’ve been here before, bar a brief period in 2023/24. Each year, the signals suggested a ‘Strong El Nino’, with quieter hurricanes, but the super event did not materialise. In the same period, the average hurricane season was twenty named storms, above the predicted average of 14.4.
The underlying trends suggest that we are not on course for a ‘Super El Nino’. Ocean surface temperatures in eastern Pacific are 2 degrees above normal, and if they spread into Central Pacific would move us into strong El Nino territory, but not ‘Super El Nino’ territory.
El Nino events are dependent on wind events that kick off the chain reaction, but the last wind event was in early April.
Reliable forecasts till the end of May suggest that another wind event will not happen. The longer that such an event does not occur, the longer the warm waters in the West Pacific (the place where the warm water is moved from) get mixed out. In this scenario, the next wind event, if it happens will be much less impactful, and possible harmful to the development of El Nino conditions, if this water is allowed to cool too long.
At the start of April (the last wind event) the water temperature at 160E (where the last 3 successive events have started) was close to 2 degrees above the average. Yet, as of 1st May, it had cooled by 1 degree and now it is closer to 0.5 degrees. This is the coolest the region has been this year.
So, given the trends in the data as highlighted above, why have forecast models been predicting a ‘Super El Nino? Well, this is because of what is referred to as the “warm bias” or “spring unpredictability barrier”. Forecast models set in Spring tend to predict a much warmer ocean than what occurs.
Why Hurricane Season Might Not Be Quiet
So, what does this mean for the currently suppressed hurricane forecast? The window for ‘Super El Nino’ is closing fast, which means that the talk around “quieter forecasts” should not be taken at face value.
There may be a scenario where El Nino takes a little longer to get going, operating in an almost stop and start fashion. This was the case in 2023, which saw a dampening impact on Hurricanes later in the season. Yet, in my experience, if the ocean does not present a robust and consistent signal, the atmosphere will likely not respond completely, and the strong coupling to dampen storm activity will not occur.
So therefore, I expect that hurricane activity forecasts to be revised upwards a little, at least closer to average ahead of the official storm season starting on 1st June.
Note; even in ‘inactive’ years, large, strong, landfilling hurricanes can still occur. Hurricane Andrew in August 1992, is an example of this; its impacts are well documented.
Preparing for 2026/27 Outlook
Underwriters preparing for their 2026/27 contingency planning should not be lulled into thinking that this hurricane season and wider weather situation will be quieter than normal.
El Nino brings with it other impactful weather such as heatwaves and droughts due to less moisture heading north from the Gulf.
The latter should be of concern to organisers of the FIFA World Cup 2026 that is taking place across the US, Canada and Mexico. Media reports have focused on the hosting of knock-out games in cities such as Miami and Atlanta, where high temperatures can be expected which can create heat stress.
Verdict
So overall, there has been lots of noise and speculation surrounding the ‘Super El Nino’, and with it the noise around a quieter hurricane season. It is my view that the current conditions and trends should be accepted with caution, and it is vital that underwriters ensure that they put in the adequate risk mitigation now to ensure that they are not caught off-guard by a normal hurricane season later this year.
Russell will be keeping a close eye on developments in the Pacific in the next few weeks and how these might transpose upon the Atlantic in the months to follow.
As ever, it pays to stay tuned to the weather.
A full report on the analysis presented will be provided in due course.