2024 to be seismic year for democracy with 40 elections set to take place

2024 set to be a seismic year with 40 elections across the world with far-reaching implications


2024 is set to be a seismic year for democracy, with 40 elections set to take place across the world from a wide range of countries from the United States to Venezuela.

An estimated 41% of the world’s population (3.2 billion), representing 42% of GDP ($44.2 trillion) will all have the option of electing new leaders next year according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics.

Starting with the elections in Taiwan in January through to the United States Presidential election in November, 2024 is going to be the year that Democracy is on the ballot box.

Added to the mix, are two wars in Gaza and Ukraine, rising tensions between the United States and China along with deepening political polarisation in many nations, all meaning that 2024 is ripe for disruption.

“It’s a very consequential year”, said Stanford University political scientist Amy Zegart, speaking to Bloomberg.

“The more uncertainty there is about anything – the rules of the game, interest rates, how market are likely to move, government regulation, policy – the more difficult it is from a business perspective”.

The countries heading into election in 2024 make for an eclectic mix. Leading nations such as United States, the UK and India all have opportunity of sticking with or changing from their current administrations.

With governments and companies locking down on supplies of raw materials needed for the transition to cleaner energy, many will be watching elections of resource-rich nations such as Venezuela and Indonesia.

There are some bright spots, with Mexico’s presidential election resulting in the first female leader of the nation, regarded as a  key reshoring alternative to China.

Likewise, South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) faces the prospect of losing its overall majority, forcing it to govern in coalition with other partners for the first time.

Geopolitical analysts will be monitoring the results of elections in Pakistan and Taiwan. Taiwan’s election promises to have significant repercussions, particularly if Vice-President Lai-Ching-te wins as forecast.

The United Kingdom is not scheduled to host an election next year, with the deadline for parliamentary elections being in January 2025. Yet, there has been speculation that the Prime Minister will call an election next year. If the polls are to be believed, then the result would signal a new Government, bringing with it a change in policy for the UK.

However, the world will be waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the US Presidential Election, which, if polls are to be believed, will be a re-run of the 2020 election between President Biden and Trump.

The outcome of this result will either give Democracy a boost in the arm  or result in the world slipping into a more autocratic alternative.

 

Post Date: 18/12/2023

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