“Surprise” Super Typhoon Ragasa Disrupts Air and Sea Freight

Super Typhoon Ragasa barrelled into the South China coast early Wednesday morning, September 24. The storm is anticipated to be the strongest storm to hit China this year, with hurricane-force winds with speeds of up to 230km/h (143mph), according to Seko Logistics. As a result, air and ocean freight delays are expected. This storm event has been huge, with impacts across the Philippines’s, Taiwan, where a river burst its banks in Hualien province claiming the lives of at least 14 people, Hong Kong and now the centre of the storm crossing into southern China, albeit weakened.

The storm has been categorised as a Number 10-type event – a tropical cyclone that develops between 180° and 100°E in the East hemisphere and which produces sustained hurricane-force winds of at least 119 km/h (74 mph).

This is the first time that two No10 warnings have been issued in a year for Hong Kong since the end of the second world war, 80 years ago. It is only the 8th No10 warning in history. The storm grew massively on its approach to China resulting in rapid warning upgrades. The region was reportedly taken by ‘surprise’ which is somewhat surprising given the size of the monster on satellite pictures.

Many residents in the tourist town of Guangfu complained there was insufficient warning from authorities, usually used to moving people out of potential danger zones swiftly as the island is frequently hit by typhoons, the Guardian reported. It does seem to highlight concerns that some storm models need a fair bit of tightening up to become relevant again in 2025.

Russell clients need to know, in terms of tangible impacts on the ground and at sea, the following:

Air Freight

• Hong Kong (HKG): Airport Authority Hong Kong (AAHK) anticipates significant disruption to flight operations at HKIA from 1800hrs on 23 September and all of 24 September, with at least 700 flights expected to be cancelled. Cathay Pacific expects to cancel 500 flights.
• Guangzhou (CAN): Guangzhou airport has cancelled all flights until Wednesday evening. This will further strain cargo capacity ahead of the Golden Week holiday and is likely to cause inventory clearance delays of around 3-7 days.
• Shenzhen (SZX): Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport has cancelled 210 departing flights and 319 incoming flights. Delays of around 2-3 days are expected for all air freight shipments.

Ocean Freight:

• Port Closures: To prepare for the typhoon, port operations have been suspended in Yantian, Nansha, Shekou, and Hong Kong. Terminal operations will be suspended until the typhoon has left the South China coast, but officially at least till 6am on September 24.
• Guangzhou & Shenzhen: Sea freight will experience delays of 3-7 days following the typhoon. Feeder services were suspended today, and mother vessel schedules will be postponed.
• Manufacturing · The typhoon’s impact is also disrupting China’s industrial production and global supply chains. In southern Guangdong province, the world’s largest electronics contract manufacturer and a crucial assembler for Apple, Foxconn Technology Group, suspended work at its Shenzhen unit on September 23.
• The South China Morning Post reported that the new iPhone 17 models started shipping last week. The Product Enclosure Business Group is in charge of the iPhone's high-speed connectors, memory and other mechanical parts. This sudden environmental disruption has severely impacted global supply chains.

In the last update, China’s National Meteorological Centre said that at the time that Ragasa made landfall, the maximum wind speed near the centre of the storm was 145kph (90mph). The centre said that the storm made landfall along the coast of Hailing island, Yangjiang city, Guangdong province around 5pm (09am GMT) on 24 September. Authorities have taken extreme precautionary measures, evacuating over a million people to safety in preparation for the storm’s expected landfall.

Russell is working closely with its (re)insurance to update them on Ragasa and is currently engaged in an exercise to provide far more granular detail on the historical precedents of these storms and the probability of future outcomes.